TGM1/2: Potentially 10,000 vs 100 GMs in Japan?

[bonus]

There is a piece of folklore that has been circulating in the TGM community, namely that there are around 10,000 GM level players of TGM 1 in Japan, but only around 100 of TGM 2. I read variations of it, namely that that is supposed to be the limit of the population in the player base, i.e. if you paired every Tetris player in Japan with the PCBs for those games, you would end up with those numbers eventually. The very wiki on this site uses a weasel phrase for these alleged facts, stating, "It is speculated that there are approximately 10,000 Gm class players in Japan on TGM1 and no more than 100 Gm players in TGM2 Master Mode." [1]

I am wondering where those numbers come from. I am asking because it is not at all uncommon in industry or politics that someone just makes up a b.s. statistics, others take it as gospel, and then it gets repeated ad nauseam even there was never any truth to it. So, who came up with those numbers for TGM? I would not at all be surprised if it was based on location tests and statistically determined, with a bit of eyeballing, by Arika. However, if that was the case, then that would be pertinent information as it would substantiate the claim infinitely more than saying that "it is speculated". In other news, "war broke out", and "one in three women"... ;p


[1] https://harddrop.com/wiki/TGM_legend

[simonlc]

Many thigs on the wiki are unsourced, or incorrect. Sometimes the source is from irc or the forums and was quickly added. Theres also multiple wikis and arent well synced. Its a global problem sadly.

The estimates are just that, estimates. They arent only based on game locations but also online leaderboards. Its known that not every player submits scores, but it is a startig point for differences between tgm and tap.

The great thing about the community though is we are always trying to improve. Find new sources, interview new people, reasearch archived websites, etc. New things are beign found all the time, its great.

[bonus]

Yes, it's great that the community is curious. My post wasn't an attack on the wiki, though. Maybe let me rephrase it:
1) I do not find it implausible that Arika made an estimation that around 10,000 people in Japan could attain GM status.
2) I do find it implausible that Arika willingly put out a game that is 100x more difficult than an already difficult game.

As a consequence, it would be helpful if there were any data available that would substantiate these claims. If they do not exist, then that is fine, but then people probably should not take it as gospel that TGM 2 is 100x more difficult than TGM 1.

[simonlc]

Tgm2 might not be 100x harder but it absolutely much more difficult. The reason there migt be many less GMs is the availability and popularity of the game by the time tgm2 came out in japan.

[XaeL]

They are just estimates, though i feel that they are probably quite accurate.
10000 TGM1 gm, 100 tgm2 gm, 10~ tgm3classic gm.

[Kitaru]

Numbers for TGM2 were based on submissions to jin8's leaderboard, which unfortunately was recently removed (and with no publicly available backup). Between TGM2 Master and Death combined and after de-duplicating names, I think there were something like 70~80 GMs. If you allow for some overhead for unknown hardcore players that were not observed in arcades and perhaps have not submitted, that's how we came up with the estimate of "in the hundreds" for TGM2.

Numbers for TGM3 are thankfully still reasonable to come by, as it's in the single digits you nearly all players have their videos still available on YouTube or Nicovideo. Therefore, "fewer than ten" TGM3 Classic GMs.

TGM1 would be the only game where we had to speculate a bit, but given that there are 100~200 GMs in the West where the game is less prevalent, and 100~200 of GMs listed on Pier21's leaderboard now long after its initial release, it doesn't seem at all unreasonable to extrapolate this estimate into figures of "in the thousands or tens of thousands" that likely achieved TGM1 GM closer to when the game first released.

2) I do find it implausible that Arika willingly put out a game that is 100x more difficult than an already difficult game.

I absolutely 100% completely believe it because it's something they've already done before. You only have to compare TGM2 and TGM3 to see that.

Moreover, in their home console port of Cave's vertical shooter DoDonPachi DaiOuJou, they added an extra difficult boss rush mode called Death Label. It took over seven years since the PS2 version's release for a single person, MON, to clear the both loops of Death Label. This was an extra mode in an already considerably difficult game; it took MON two years to clear the Arcade version.

MON's video of DDPDOJ Death Label, uploaded on Mihara's YouTube channel.

You also have to remember that you don't have to achieve GM to enjoy the game or see progress or personal development. So, I don't think it's unreasonable to see what players can do already, then push the boundary further (within reason and with care taken in the game's design, of course). It just ensures there is plenty of room to grow.

[bonus]

Thanks for your detailed reply, Alex! The information you provided about the estimates should probably be put into the wiki or shared in some other way as it seems very relevant.

Regarding your last sentence, I fully agree. I just played a few hours of TGM1 and got to S2. I found it quite motivating how the game tracks progress as you not only strive for new ranks but also for better times. You feel that you are improving even if you are stuck on S2 because you shave off seconds of your best times. On the other hand, in my main Tetris game (NES), level 19 is basically a wall, with the difficulty curve jumping up quite dramatically at that point.

[bonus]

There was another interview with MON on that site (http://shmuplations.com/scorer2/), which has a very relevant quote:

[!--quoteo--][div class=\\\'quotetop\\\']QUOTE[/div][div class=\\\'quotemain\\\'][!--quotec--]—Now I’d like to ask Mihara some questions. It took MON seven and a half years to clear Death Label. Did the clear happen sooner than you expected, or later?

Mihara: Hmm, well, I thought it would take 2-3 years to clear. When we were adjusting the difficulty for Death Label, our basic design was to make something enticing to the top arcade players of the time, and to make it so they couldn’t clear it.
—So they couldn’t clear it? (laughs)

Mihara: Each time a game is cleared, Cave thinks to themselves “how can we make the next game unclearable?” and sets to building new walls and challenges for players. That’s how Death Label was. To be honest, with Death Label, it was sort of like… if someone can clear this, great, and if no one can, ok.
—So that’s how it was.[/quote]