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Forums - Hard Drop - Tetris Community _ Tetris _ Classic Tetris World Championship Elo ratings

Posted by: caffeine Nov 8 2017, 05:55 PM

2017 NES Power Rankings

492 Jonas_N
409 Harry_H
332 Alex_K
310 Eli_M
306 Quaid
285 Koryan
234 Mike_W
228 Matt_B
224 Jeff_M
222 Bo_S
173 Ben_M
158 Trey_H
146 Jani_H
128 Terry_P
123 Chad_M

Edit: Recalculated without adding days between tournament due to more accurate figures using this method.

I was curious what it would look like to compute the Elo ratings of players based on historical CTWC win/loss data. I used for input to the program. If you find any mistakes, please let me know. I thought it would be best to use the method. It's more computationally expensive, but creates slightly more predictive results. Using the, I used to compute the ratings. Also, the

Generally, Elo ratings need several games before they are accurate. That's the main drawback here. The more tournaments played, and the more times a player makes it to the later rounds, the more accurate his or her ratings should be.

Posted by: wizard944 Nov 9 2017, 03:05 PM

This is cool! I kinda wanna do something similar for guideline tetris. Maybe I'll compile all the TTO results and try and make a rating ladder out of that. Any other tournaments that should be included? Maybe some of the HDO ones.

Posted by: caffeine Oct 23 2018, 03:14 AM

I recomputed the ratings with the 2018 match results added in. I used for the program. Please let me know if there are any errors. The format is [winner] vs [loser] [Winner wins = 'W', Winner loses = 'L']. For matches I could not find info on, I used "WLW."

2018 NES Power Rankings

569 Joseph_S
478 Jonas_N
399 Harry_H
387 Green_T
384 Koryan
313 Alex_K
291 Eli_M
233 Svavar_G
230 Matt_B
172 Terry_P
169 Josh_T
165 Jeff_M
160 Ben_M
155 Trey_H
149 Jani_H
112 Chad_M

Edit: I ran the algorithm this time with 0 days elapsing between tournaments. It seems to be a more accurate method than adding 365 days between tournaments.
Edit2: Updated with more accurate 2018 round 0 info factored in.

Posted by: XaeL Oct 23 2018, 04:41 AM

Wow, great work caffeine!

I think next year there will be 3-4 new players who will all place top 8, knocking out a lot of the old players.

Posted by: caffeine Oct 6 2019, 09:57 PM

Out of curiosity, I wrote a Monte Carlo simulation for a hypothetical 16-player knock-out tournament. I modeled it using CTWC's format with the Elo ratings derived from the previous 7 CTWC tournaments as well as 2018/2019 Westcoast, Mideast, Eastcoast, Southern, and Desert Qualifiers. Got the data for many of the qualifier events that I couldn't find on video or FB from Chris_F's excellent database on the CTWC discord., and here's the output:


1st 2nd 3rd or more
28% 11% 61%  Joseph_S
19% 11% 70%  Jonas_N
11% 10% 79%  Green_T
9%  9%  81%  Harry_H
9%  9%  82%  Koryan
7%  8%  85%  DanQZ
4%  7%  89%  Alex_K
4%  6%  90%  Quaid
2%  5%  92%  Svavar_G
2%  5%  93%  Eli_M
2%  4%  94%  Noztrom
1%  4%  95%  Jeff_M
1%  4%  95%  Matt_B
1%  2%  97%  Bo_S
0%  2%  98%  Beastinshen
0%  2%  98%  Shakil_A

Edit: corrected method for finding probability of a win using WHR and reran the program.
Edit2: reran but with best of 5 matches for top 8.

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